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Archive for the 'Big Think' Category

Management by Captain Kirk

Monday, May 11th, 2009

Captain Kirk, management guru? Yes, say management experts, in a clever article assessing Kirk’s management of the Enterprise. It highlights six things the typical CEO could learn from Captain Kirk:

Know when to be a pal, and when to be tough. As Kirk found when he split personalities, you can’t be too nice or too tyrannical, but have to mix both elements of your personality.

Know both sides of the story. Kirk forged a truce between a monster and some miners by finding out the root of the anger on both sides.

Know when to change. Kirk intervenes in an ancient struggle by forcibly reframing the problem. A good first step for any management dilemma.
Don’t be afraid to manage up. The example is Kirk being insubordinate (what else is new?), so it’s really about not being a yes man. What usually  happens is you don’t get your own spaceship. But Kirk’s bosses don’t like yes men, and he gets promoted.
Change your style. Don’t manage everyone the same way. Kirk didn’t.

Managing Generation Y. Same as 5, really, but more direct in reminding CEOs to value the perspective of their youngest employees.

In fact, after seeing the new Star Trek movie this weekend, I am reminded that Kirk, for all his leadership qualities, was capricious, cocksure and something of a con man. His best management skill? Having a good Hollywood scriptwriter on his side. Star Trek management will only work so well in the real world.

“Wired to Care,” or not

Monday, May 4th, 2009

Wired to Care will make some readers crazy with love. Others, though, will view its message with deep skepticism. At its heart, “Wired to Care” offers a management manual for those who think business cannot be run by the numbers. “Quantitative data and facts are no substitute for real-world experience and human connection,” write Dev Patnaik and his word wizard, Peter Mortensen.

The premise is that business people will do better when they take the time to understand others – customers, partners, suppliers, potential acquisition targets. If it sounds a bit like Dale Carnegie, well, it should. Carnegie gets a big hug from Patnaik early on, for noting the obvious, that “it’s just human nature to be interested in people who are interested in you.” What does it mean for business? Patnaik says “If you want to create products and services that other people care about, you should put aside your problems and start caring about other people’s lives.”

Not profits, not sales goals – people’s lives. We read a few pleasing success stories that prove the point. Lou Gerstner saves IBM because, as an ex-customer, he knows what customers really need. Zildjian thrives for 400 years by its ability to constantly shift where its customers want it to go. Nina Planck divines that British consumers really want fresh, locally grown produce, and creates a booming business in farmers’ markets.

Patnaik then invokes science to give the theory something less squishy to stand on. In fact, he waves the neuroscience wand, discussing things like the discovery of mirror neurons by a team of Italian scientists. He also looks at research in cognitive science that shows why it’s hard for us to identify with people who aren’t like us. It’s the gentlest, most palatable science discussion a businessperson could hope for, and it blesses the book with the miraculous secrets brain science reveals. What business can’t use miraculous secrets?

To be fair, Patnaik takes care to point out that the research cited “suggests” things, rather than being definitive. But you would have to be a careful reader not to get swept up by the idea that we are in fact wired to work together, to want to connect. Hence the chapter on the Golden Rule, arguing that business success starts by revising that fabled rule, changing ‘do unto others as you would have them do unto you’ to ‘do unto others as we would have them do unto us.’ (By the way, Patnaik gives us the biological basis of The Golden Rule, the less felicitous ‘reciprocal altruism.’)

It’s a tempting argument, but the book sits under a couple of huge shadows. One is cast by “The Innovator’s Dilemma,” which argues in part that many successful companies run into trouble exactly because they listen too closely to their most important customers, and miss important market shifts. Patnaik does try to show how empathy can overcome “The Innovator’s Dilemma.” He looks at ‘the car wreck in slow motion” that has been the Big Three automakers over the last several decades, and argues that the automakers gradually turned Michigan into a vast corporate town, the world they wanted to exist, and removed themselves from the world they actually had to compete in. He may be right, but a weakness of the book is that it does not do much to explain how companies can avoid this problem.

Another shadow comes from the obvious problem that we are not wired to care for everyone, and some people seem wired to care for little but themselves. Empathy may have evolutionary advantages, but it also comes with costs, and in business, looking out for others can make a company look less profitable than more selfish rivals.

Still, it is hard not to like “Wired to Care.” The book reads well, and can be finished in a middling-length plane ride, say. Its business anecdotes are powerful. In fact, the whole thing plays on our mirror neurons. You want to empathize with Patnaik’s nice, smart, caring, successful managers. You want to be like them. Unless, of course, you don’t.

Update: here’s a good review from the San Jose Mercury News.

Is the Fed dead?

Wednesday, April 29th, 2009

The Becker/Posner blog grimaces at the Federal Reserve’s lack of independence. Yes, says Becker, the normal political pressures faced by central banks become overwhelming during crises. “So the rather complete bending of the Fed to the Treasury’s wishes during the present worldwide recession is not surprising,” Becker concedes. But he doesn’t like it, and in particular he thinks it will create very difficult problems for the Fed when the economy recovers.

He particularly fears the inflationary potential caused by the swell in bank reserves from about $8 billion to about $800 billion. Longer-term, he sees higher interest rates as an inevitable consequence of the stimulus plan, and a Fed stuck between choosing recession and inflation.
Posner’s post on the same topic goes on at length, and seems less troubled (but not untroubled) by the Fed’s manuevers and obvious lack of independence.

Biotech makes a buck

Monday, February 23rd, 2009

There are various comments about how investors as a whole often don’t make money on sectors. Bill Frezza, an entrepreneur and venture capitalist, says that wireless investors, for instance, put in more money than they got back.

“The winners made a fortune for other investors while laying the foundation of a huge and profitable industry. This industry employs hundreds of thousands of people, makes our lives better, and generates billions in taxes,” he notes. For him, that’s the way venture capital works — “in the VC industry we privatize losses and socialize gains.”

I’ve heard the same thing said for either electronics or semiconductors, though I can’t find it — something like, if you add up all the money spent since the beginning of the industry, it’s a negative number.
But now we know that it’s true for biotech. Drawing on data from publicly-traded companies, Peter Winter, editor at the biotech merchant bank Burrill & Co., put together a report that found biotech as an industry made money in 2008, about $9.4 billion in net profits.

That might seem like bright sign for biotech, given what a bad year 2008 was for so many industrial sectors. But, as Winter tells us in this podcast, biotech in the black, 2009 could be much worse. After all, only 67 biotech companies were actually profitable in 2008. Worse, almost all the profits, about $8 billion, went to three companies: Genentech, Amgen and Gilead.

Winter says that the 298 companies in biotech lost a combined $6 billion (these are, of course, just the publicly traded firms). He expects a very challenging next 12 to 18 months for the capital-hungry biotech sector. He thinks as many as 200 biotech firms are in trouble, and perhaps one-third of all biotech firms will disappear, through acquisition, merger or just plain death.

“The industry will be totally different 12 months from now,” Winter says.

One promising thing for those starting out now: the Big Three of biotech all got going during tough times — Genentech in 1976, just after the vicious 1973-75 recession, Amgen in 1980, as America dipped in and out of recession, and Gilead in 1987, the year of a major market crash. When Genentech started, almost nobody believed in biotech. If nobody believes in you now, maybe in 40 years you’ll be looking at an entire industry that’s finally making money.

Dr. Doom gives a thumbs up to nationalization

Sunday, February 22nd, 2009

The economist Nouriel Roubini has made his reputation by more or less accurately decrying things he doesn’t like about the economy. In this weekend’s Wall St. Journal, he talks about something he does like: temporary nationalization of troubled U.S. banks.

He tells the Journal: “The idea that government will fork out trillions of dollars to try to rescue financial institutions, and throw more money after bad dollars, is not appealing because then the fiscal cost is much larger. So rather than being seen as something Bolshevik, nationalization is seen as pragmatic. Paradoxically, the proposal is more market-friendly than the alternative of zombie banks.”

Roubini also zings the Bush Administration for taking banks that were too big too fail and making them even bigger (for instance, Countrywide and Merrill Lynch into Bank of America, or Wachovia into Wells Fargo). “You can’t take two zombie banks, put them together, and make a strong bank. It’s like having two drunks trying to keep each other standing.”

Of course, Wells Fargo and Bank of America weren’t supposed to be zombie banks. But Roubini argues that in six months, “almost all” of the major banks will basically be insolvent.

He envisions a Sweden-like situation where the banks are nationalized temporarily and then returned to private hands after they’ve been stabilized. Oddly, Bill Maher invoked Sweden’s banks and the idea of nationalization on his HBO show on Friday night. The audience laughed, but let’s be realistic: Sweden’s banking system is much smaller and was much less messed up than America’s. Also, Wall Street seems to hate the idea. Then again, it doesn’t like much of anything these days. Perhaps that’s why it’s sent stock prices back to 1997, in the early days of the Internet Bubble. Those were indeed better times for the stock market.
Roubini’s interview is by parts fawning and interesting. It’s certainly worth a read, especially since he’s funnier about the economy than Maher is.

What’s So Different about Google?

Monday, February 2nd, 2009

Jeff Jarvis, a journalism professor who also writes the blog Buzz Machine, has a new book out, “What Would Google Do?” arguing that all companies should try to think like Google. I’m not a big believer in magic potions, silver bullets, secret formulas. Further, I doubt that most companies can repeat Google’s success even if they think like Google — just like wearing Air Jordans does not make me better at basketball.

I’ve not yet read this book, but it’s getting plenty of buzz — Business Week  even put it on its cover this week, with an excerpt. Jarvis is consistent in his themes, and just from looking at the excerpts out there, I have issues with his argument.

First, the themes. Jarvis’s real point is not to be like Google, he tells Newsweek in this interview, but to be like a company that has profitably figured out the Internet — others are Amazon.com, Craigslist and Facebook. He says businesspeople should pick one such firm and try to emulate it wherever possible. That’s reasonable advice on its face, though the business models for each of these seem very different to me, and in the case of Facebook are still emergent.
Yet his book excerpt in Business Week, entitled “Detroit Should Get Cracking on its Googlemobile,” vacillates between saying Detroit should become PimpMyCar.com and Detroit should get out of car-making entirely. Jarvis barely acknowledges that even successful auto companies don’t act like Google. Or maybe they do, and he’s missing it. He says, for instance, that car companies should issue beta-mobiles, just like software firms issue beta code, as if automakers haven’t for years trotted out concept cars, or as if it would be easy to upgrade a beta car (is he not familiar with the failed electric car beta test in California?). He seems completely unaware of something like Project Driveway, the test fleet of hydrogen-powered cars GM rolled out last year. Detroit may not be as aggressive about commercializing what consumers do to their cars as it was when Tom Wolfe wrote the Kandy-Kolored Tangerine-Flake Streamline Baby, but Detroit clearly was a pioneer in corporate use of crowd-sourcing, and it still has people paying attention, as this piece about biodiesel, Motorhead Messiah, shows (yes, the piece skews towards “Detroit is stupid,” but there are a number of unsung auto company officials who seem to be helping out the piece’s hero). Detroit looks more like Google than Jarvis gives it credit for. So far, the model hasn’t translated.

Perhaps that’s because Jarvis’ unspoken point seems to be that businesses that still make physical goods need to stop. He doesn’t say this quite so directly,  but it’s implicit in his ‘atoms are a drag’ mantra, repeated in the book and in interviews. Plus, in his excerpt he claims that Zipcar is the Google of car companies, because it’s figured out that people don’t want cars, they want to be transported. That’s what smart automakers should do, says Jarvis. Isn’t this really just saying that smart automakers would stop making cars?

The model seems to be, Ford, GM, Chrysler, you own slices of foreign car makers better suited to being in a commodity business like building things made of atoms. Stop pretending factories should be something other than sweatshops, and factory workers can have middle class lives. Get out of the business of running factories and dealer networks, and go virtual. Use all the data you have from your years of selling cars and direct your partners on what to build.

Business Week gives him a pass on this in an interview about the book. Newsweek is less kind, raising the unpleasant question of why Google itself isn’t more like the Google of Jarvis’ book.

Newsweek: Are there any areas in which Google itself doesn’t act very “Google-y?” Not disclosing its advertising revenue splits, for example.
Jarvis: Right. There are areas where Google doesn’t act very Google-y, which are mainly about transparency. It can’t be transparent about its algorithms and how they operate, because then they will get gamed more. And those are special sauce. I wish Google were more open about its advertising arrangements and splits, so we had a better sense of the value of the market; I wish it were more open about the sources that it puts into Google News.

This comment is telling. In fact, it shows that if you want to be like Google, act like its model: Microsoft. Like Microsoft, Google is very protective of the things that make it money. Like Microsoft, it is very aggressive about doing whatever it can to undermine its competitors. Microsoft gave away Internet Explorer to hurt Netscape. Google gives away (or sells very cheaply) Google Docs to hurt Microsoft Office. Google is less ham-fisted about this than Microsoft was when it was killing Netscape. It certainly sounds friendlier when Google and other Web firms tout the idea of open information. But then, these firms all make money off the information we share with them. The strategy is Microsoft’s, applied through a different filter. Clearly, despite what Jarvis says, being transparent and open about everything is not what Google would do. The media’s been trying to be like Google for years now, and has only succeeded in destroying its business model, as Jarvis well knows (except in those rare cases where a savvy media company became a dominant search engine in its region). True, much of that is because of disruptions in how advertising gets delivered, and where people spend their time. But it should be clear by now that giving away traditional newspaper and magazine content online simply doesn’t pay.

I have found myself baffled, as well, at Jarvis’s assertion that Google listens to people. I have posted about my inability to find my Web site, www.mffitzgerald.com, in Google’s search engine (see Life Without Google). I still have no idea why my Web site went from first listing for a Google search on “Michael Fitzgerald” in March to completely unfindable in its search engine by June (my site in that period remained in first on Live and fell from 2nd to 4th on Yahoo). Something related to me is again the top listing on Google search for Michael Fitzgerald — my biography on BNET, and not my Web page or even this blog page. Also in the top 10 listings is my bio on CIO, another place where I contribute. Granted, there are 216,000 responses when you Google “Michael Fitzgerald,” and I didn’t look at all of them, but once I hit a Twitter post of mine, I figured it was time to quit.

I have used Google’s automated customer service to try to find out why. I might as well be talking to an invisible mule. Google’s customer service bot was designed by some Sartre-loving engineer for his (or her) own amusement.

I am sure there are things of value in this book, and I hope to read it in full soon. But the ones that Jarvis is touting seem thin.

Turtling, Business Style

Wednesday, January 28th, 2009

Turtling is the derisive term hockey players use when a supposed tough guy hunkers down on both knees rather than fight. Richard Martin, editor of the networking publication VON, says the press and a good deal of businesspeople are turtling because of the economy.

“This is not the Great Depression,” he scolds. “It’s not even the dot-com crash of 2001. It’s time to get out of the turtle position and start working, and investing, and looking to the future again. This is America. That’s what we do.”

He’s right that it is not the dot-com crash of 2001. It’s far broader than that. There are also potential demographic trends that suggest consumer spending in developed nations will slow for a generation.

But he’s also right that gloom needs to stuffed in a shell. Put it away for a bit, and figure out how to develop a growth strategy built around consumers in emerging economies. I’m reading the insightful book “Globality” right now, which has several intriguing examples of companies that have done just this. More on them soon.

Sputnik vs. Global Warming

Friday, January 16th, 2009

I was checking out this interview on innovation with the consistently successful Judy Estrin (for more, see my Big Think post).

When she gives advice to the president, she talks up energy independence and fighting global warming, invokes Sputnik and talks about how the nation rallied behind the space program. Coincidentally, I’m about a third of the way through Tom Wolfe’s “The Right Stuff.” Wolfe’s book so far isn’t really about test pilots and astronauts, but an anthropology of national totem-building, and how America’s leaders and the press became bewitched by “a modern, i.e., technological, astrology.” The program, he argues, benefited from the press culture of the 1950s, which Wolfe archly calls “a great colonial animal…made up of countless clustered organisms responding to a single nervous system. In the late 1950s (as in the late 1970s)…the animal’s fundamental concern remained the same: the public, the populace, the citizenry, must be provided with the correct feelings!”

It’s a little disconcerting to see Wolfe hack at the mythology of of the U.S. response to Sputnik, which is one of those crises, along with the great wars we’ve been in, and the Depression, that define our character as a country. Wolfe basically is saying the Sputnik alarm was a false one, and we were already well on our way to having our own satellites to launch, if a little behind. It suggests that America only functions when a panic button gets pressed. Otherwise, we are mired in our petty everyday conflicts.

I hope in this case that he’s wrong, because it’s obvious that energy independence and fighting global warming are slogs, not dramatic things that can be shown on television.

Management by Drug Abuse

Friday, January 9th, 2009

In the future, corporate drug testing will be to see if you’re taking the drugs the company wants you to take.

An argument found and posted by Nick Carr, in Managing productivity through pharmacology, holds that people should be allowed to take drugs that dull their minds to everything but the task at hand. Carr takes this as the next logical step, as a follow-on to an editorial in Nature calling for governments to allow mentally healthy people access to prescription-only drugs like Ritalin. The scientists, several of whom hold chairs funded by drug companies, think that such drugs should not be used only as correctives, but for all those who want to stimulate their minds.

Carr is mildly concerned by the legalize it view of these scientists, but seems to see the Frank Pasquale post as a logical follow-on, though Pasquale holds that companies may require workers to take drugs so they’re focused solely on one task, thus increasing productivity.  Pasquale is being tongue-in-cheek: his real feelings are here.)

But even in the original Nature editorial is a weird leap of logic. The Nature editorial authors call neuro drugs the moral equivalent of exercise, sleep, nutrition, teaching, using computers, writing and language itself. They seem to have confused their moral equivalence with their moral hazard. Just because two things have a similar effect does not make them the same.

I’m not necessarily against brain enhancements — I have consumed coffee when tired, and I like to exercise to relieve stress and change my perspective (I took a walk before posting this). More to the point, it’s painful to make errors or fail to recall a fact at a crucial moment or to have the mind wander when you need it to be paying attention. At those moments, drugs sound pretty good. And if there were a drug that would make my first drafts better, I’d at least be tempted to take it.

But here are some issues with encouraging people to pop mind pills. We know that we don’t have personalized medicine — we don’t know what drugs work for which people. Thus there are always side effects, sometimes severe ones. Even something as simple as caffeine pills might not work as expected; I well remember falling asleep despite having popped caffeine pills, and I’ve amped up on coffee only to find myself getting into raging arguments that killed everybody’s productivity. I also know people who were put on anti-depressants that caused other deleterious side effects, including life-threatening ones.

I’m also leery of things that dehumanize us, and drugs that get rid of our variations do exactly that.

Research suggests modest enhancements at best with today’s crop of brain drugs. We’ll probably get better at them. But should we? If you could take a drug that would make you a better manager, would you?

I’ve posted a pill-popping poll on Big Think, where I first put this musing.

Markets and morality

Monday, December 8th, 2008

The John Templeton Foundation this week in London held “A Big Questions Conversation: Does the free market corrode moral character?”

The Templeton Foundation (disclosure: I was a 2007 Templeton-Cambridge Journalism Fellow in Science and Religion) has been taking out ads in various places featuring the expected — Robert Reich — and the less so — Garry Kasparov — on the topic. On its Web site, it has 13 essays and nine videos representing different opinions on the subject. It’s the latest of Templeton’s efforts to get people to think about the morality of the marketplace.

At the London debate were:

  • John Gray, emeritus professor of economics at the London School of Economics and author of books like “False Dawn: The Delusions of Global Capitalism;” Black Mass: Apocalyptic Religion and the Death of Utopia”;
  • Jagdish  Bhagwati, professor of economics and law at Columbia University and author of “In Defense of Globalization”;
  • Bernard-Henri Levy, thinker, philosopher and author of books like “American Vertigo” and “Left in Dark Times: A Stand Against the New Barbarism.”

There’s a video of their discussion here, though I can’t get the video to work in my browsers. There is a transcript on the same page. It is not the most fluid transcript, with the occasional  ‘lazy affair’ for ‘laissez-faire,’ but all in all it’s a good read, perhaps because they don’t talk much about the question, but instead wander all over the economic and socio-political maps.

A few salient comments:

What we have in the world are mixed economies with the state playing a profoundly important role and an increased role.  And I do not expect in my lifetime
any reversion to the kind of economies that existed even a few
months ago.  It is too large a crisis and will require too much
state intervention. — John Brown

…there seems to be a tendency to think that somehow being in markets
is actually going to make you mean, greedy, whatever - I mean,
whatever you want to say.  And I don’t think it’s very - to me
that’s a bit of a welcome Marxist fallacy, that where you work
and what you do really defines your values.  — Jagdish Bhagwati

So I would not say that free market corrodes the moral
character.  I would say the reverse, the moral character, the
decline of the moral values of the democratic society, the decline
of the ideal which was expressed so well by great American,
English and French thinkers through ages this decline has
corroded and is still corroding the system of the free market. — Bernard Henri-Levy

To me, markets themselves are an amoral instrument, but they clearly reflect the interest of market makers, and thus can be instruments of morality, or plain old ethics.