I went to the Wayback Machine today to dredge up some things I’d published but were no longer available online. The Wayback machine went one for two, and I was happy for the one. But it was a reminder of the digital world’s impermanence — these were published less than four years ago. I read Nick Carr’s excellent book “The Big Switch,” and in it he posits that cloud computing will lead to a giant World Wide Computer, and it will be so fast and so “smart” — so good at searching — that we will link our brains to it and become part of it and probably subsumed by it, an oddly eusocial vision of the future of humans. [see my assessment of what it means for business here: Are You Ready for the Big Switch?]
Even if he’s right, there will still be a problem: people die, and so do sites, and someone has to pay to keep them registered. Thus even in a world with free storage, there will be bureaucratic hangups — the tyranny of forms needed to show that a human has not gone offline. So my little episode with the Wayback Machine stands as a precursor to Internet Alzheimers, otherwise known as the 404 File Not Found syndrome.
And if I’m wrong, I harbor no illusions that this post will still be around 40 years from now for people to ridicule.
My friend Brendan Koerner’s book is out. Now the Hell Will Start
tells a tale lost in the mists of history, a World War II manhunt in Burma. I’m looking forward to reading it.
Over on Big Think, I’ve posted a poll on whether companies need a chief strategy officer (besides, of course, the CEO). I think it’s redundant, and a symptom of companies that suffer from poor internal communications. You can go weigh in on the poll I’ve set up.
Experience is usually under-rated in business and sports. Experience means old. Youth means vitality and energy and lack of encumbrances, thus more hours for spending on whatever the task is at hand. But in the Stanley Cup finals between Detroit and Pittsburgh, the youthful Penguins indeed look immature. Maybe there’s something to those studies suggesting that experience has real value. Keep that in mind when dumping older workers who make more money than a new hire would — the new hire may not be able to do the job as well.
Shukan Daiyamondo has just run my interview with Michael Stallard about his concept of the connected culture. Stallard argues that U.S. productivity would be substantially higher if businesses would develop such a culture, one in which
People are motivated by the mission or they’re united by the values…everyone in the organization appreciates their colleagues’ positive unique contributions, and they help each other achieve their potential…. (and) people seek the ideas of others intentionally, they share their ideas and opinions honestly.
It might sound smarmy, but then again, if it would really make a company more profitable, shouldn’t it be worth a try?
This recession will be short and mild, says Mark Zandi of economy.com. He told me so in February for an interview I did with him for Shukan Daiyamondo, and he still maintains that view, as this article and others show.
But longer term, he thinks we’re going to go through a major lifestyle change. Forget the rising cost of oil: we might be going back to households with one TV (gasp).
Consumers are going to have to match their spending with their income, something that we haven’t done for 25 years. Saving rates will rise. U.S. consumers are not going to be able to borrow as aggressively as they have in the past. They’re not going to have the benefit of declining interest rates. Asset values – stocks, bonds, and real estate – aren’t going to appreciate as quickly in the next 25 years as they did in the past 25 years
I’ve gotten behind in posting things to this blog; this should’ve gone up in February. I’ll try to be better.
Over on Big Think, which now sucks up almost all my blogging time, I’ve posted Do Markets Have Morals? on a note that the Templeton Foundation sent out on some recent books it helped fund research for, all of which seem to argue that there are elements of morality in markets.